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A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration
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Author(s): Asmeret Bier Naugle (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA), George A. Backus (Sandia National Laboratories (Retired), Broomfield, USA), Vincent C. Tidwell (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA), Elizabeth Kistin-Keller (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA)and Daniel L. Villa (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA)
Copyright: 2019
Volume: 8
Issue: 1
Pages: 22
Source title:
International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA)
Editor(s)-in-Chief: Ahmad Taher Azar (College of Computer & Information Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia & Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence, Benha University, Benha, Egypt)
DOI: 10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101
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Abstract
As climate change and human migration accelerate globally, decision-makers are seeking tools that can deepen their understanding of the complex nexus between climate change and human migration. These tools can help to identify populations under pressure to migrate, and to explore proactive policy options and adaptive measures. Given the complexity of factors influencing migration, this article presents a system dynamics-based model that couples migration decision making and behavior with the interacting dynamics of economy, labor, population, violence, governance, water, food, and disease. The regional model is applied here to the test case of migration within and beyond Mali. The study explores potential systems impacts of a range of proactive policy solutions and shows that improving the effectiveness of governance and increasing foreign aid to urban areas have the highest potential of those investigated to reduce the necessity to migrate in the face of climate change.
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