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Extended Compartmental Model

Extended Compartmental Model
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Copyright: 2023
Pages: 23
Source title: Controlling Epidemics With Mathematical and Machine Learning Models
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Abraham Varghese (University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Muscat, Oman), Eduardo M. Lacap, Jr. (University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Muscat, Oman), Ibrahim Sajath (University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Muscat, Oman), M. Kamal Kumar (University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Muscat, Oman) and Shajidmon Kolamban (University of Technology and Applied Sciences, Muscat, Oman)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-8343-2.ch005


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In this chapter, a new compartmental model that extends the classical SIR model by incorporating various infectious stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Sultanate of Oman for a period of 145 days is presented. This incorporates the various stages of infection such as mildly infected, moderately infected, hospitalized, and critically infected. The transmission stage of the disease is categorized as pre-symptomatic transmission, asymptomatic transmission, and symptomatic transmission. The various transmission as well as transition parameters are estimated during the period from June 4th – October 26th, 2020 along with the pandemic size for a period of 400 days. Sensitivity analysis is performed on transition parameters and the parameter gamma due to the contact with the symptomatic moderately infected is found to be more significant in spreading the disease. As the value of basic reproduction number (R0) is 0.6088 during the period from June 8th – October 26th, 2020, the disease-free equilibrium is stable, and isolation and tracing the contact are suggested to control the spread of disease.

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