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A Theoretical Technology Adoption Rate Model
Abstract
This article proposes a hypothetical model for determining rate of diffusion of an innovation in a system. The model modifies Everett Rogers’ S-curve using an index created from Gartner’s hype cycle phases. Rogers’ model for technology innovation adoption demonstrates that cumulative technology diffusion in a system from zero through the late majority adopters’ phase forms a curve resembling the letter “S”. Hype cycles analyze the five emotional stages technology adopters go through from over-enthusiasm (hype) though disappointment until it plateaus (beginning of mainstream adoption). When numbers assigned to the phases of adoption from the hype cycle are used as multipliers and applied to the cumulative adoption data of an innovation (Rogers’ S-curve), the “S” becomes a “J”. With the J-curve you can determine the rate of innovation diffusion in an organization.
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