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Forecasting Water Demand With the Long Short-Term Memory Deep Learning Mode
Abstract
Traditional methods often fall short in modeling the nonlinear, seasonally variable nature of urban water demand. This proposed solution is an integrated ARIMA-LSTM deep learning model, combining ARIMA's proficiency in linear trend and seasonal modeling with LSTM's strength in capturing nonlinear time dependencies. In these experiments, the authors trained and evaluated using daily water demand data from 2015 to 2020, with its performance validated for the year 2021. The ARIMA-LSTM model demonstrates promising results, outperforming individual models in terms of accuracy. In validation, it achieves a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.98 and a significantly low root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.94. These metrics indicate an excellent fit to the data and a high level of precision in its predictions. The significance of this research lies in its potential to advance the field of urban water demand forecasting, ultimately contributing to better water resource management and sustainability in urban areas.
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