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Improving the Forecasting Process in Project Control
Abstract
In the project control process, the role of the ETC (Estimate to Complete) is critical, since, given a feed forward control loop, the only way to influence the overall project performance is to take actions affecting the work remaining. The forecasting accuracy related to ETC is linked to the ability of the project team to exploit all the knowledge available in order to anticipate the future development of the project. According to the classification of the knowledge sources it is possible to identify three different approaches to determining the ETC: (1) using data records related to the work completed by highlighting possible trends (2) adjusting the trend stemming from data records using experts' judgment and (3) integrating the internal view of the project, i.e. data records related to the work completed and experts' judgment related to work remaining, with data records deriving from similar projects completed in the past. A Bayesian approach may represent a possible way of integrating the different knowledge sources.
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