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Modelling the Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Lower Caribbean Region
Abstract
Modelling the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones is an important step in assessing risk with a view toward mitigating their adverse impacts The Poisson model was evaluated for modelling the frequency of tropical cyclones over and around Trinidad and Tobago's area of influence by statistically analysing a data series extracted from the Atlantic HURDAT2 count time series data for the period 1851 to 2014. This was tested for serial correlation and the residuals of a Poisson regression analysis. Both tests failed to detect the presence of trends or cycles thereby indicating that the data series is random. The Poisson model was subsequently fitted to the data. It was concluded that there has been no increasing trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Therefore, widespread claims of an increasing trend in the frequency of tropical cyclones in Trinidad and Tobago's area of influence have no valid empirical basis. The Poisson model is recommended for estimating the probabilities of occurrence of tropical cyclones.
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