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A Support System for the Strategic Scenario Process
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Author(s): Hannu Kivijärvi (Helsinki School of Economics, Finland), Markku Tuominen (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland), Kalle Elfvengren (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland), Kalle Piirainen (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland)and Samuli Kortelainen (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland)
Copyright: 2008
Pages: 15
Source title:
Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Frederic Adam (University College Cork, Ireland)and Patrick Humphreys (London School of Economics, UK)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-59904-843-7.ch093
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Abstract
In modern day business, management of uncertainty in the environment has become a vital part in building success. The increasing speed of changes in the field of business and shortening product lifecycles are being discussed right up to the point where these concepts are becoming clichés (e.g., Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997; Wiggins & Ruefli, 2005). The problem of uncertain conditions boils down to the question: how can a business develop reasonable strategies for steering the company in the long run (Mintzberg, 1994)? Strategic planning and decision making in some form or another is seen as an important part of modern corporate management. Traditional techniques and tools have been criticized for being too rigid from the perspective of managing the environment (Mintzberg, 1994; Schoemaker, 1995). In many instances, the analysis that fuels the development of corporate strategies is a snapshot of the surrounding world and does not perceive possible anomalies in the development of situations. In the traditional sense, management is all about knowing the relevant decision parameters and forecasting the result of each decision. In contrast, scenario planning has gained attention as a structured method for interfacing strategic planning with the evolving operating conditions (e.g., Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, & Lampel, 1998; Walsh, 2005). Scenarios are not a single point prediction of a defined time-space in some point of future, and multiple scenarios have conventionally been used to map the borders of plausible futures (Schwartz, 1996; Schoemaker, 1995; van der Heijden, Bradfield, George, Cairns, & Wright, 2002), which aims at avoiding problems that arise if carefully conducted forecast of future business proves to be faulty.
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