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Agricultural Planning Risk
Abstract
The method is applied to Farm Planning to manage the associated risk. DMAIC framework applies stochastic techniques. Stochastic optimisation determines the optimal land allocation strategies to maximise profit. Once the optimal strategies are resolved, every determined strategy is simulated. So, the profit and associated risk factors are stochastically calculated. Six Sigma process capability metrics are also calculated to measure the process performance of the mean profit distribution. Simulation results are analysed and sensitivity analysis is used to identify and quantify the main contributors to the profit variability. The optimal strategies are ranked and prioritised for management's attention based on their gain and associated risk factors. This will facilitate the management decision making in order to select the best strategy for implementation. The execution of the optimal plan is considered as an individual implemented project. Therefore, Project Management approach is used to control the plan execution.
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