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Incorporating Simulation in Project Scoping
Abstract
There is a great deal of public and government regulatory support for significant growth in renewables for electricity generation at the expense of fossil fuels, primarily coal. Unlike fossil fuels whose output is controlled by a utility dispatcher, solar and wind depend on exposure to sunlight and wind speed for determining their output. This chapter deals with the use of simulation to match uncertain supply of solar and wind energy with indeterminable demand using a pumped storage facility to store excess electricity generation and to supply electricity to cover shortfalls. A modeling template using @RISK simulation analysis is proposed. The challenge of fossil fuel plants coupled with solar and wind farms with a strong seasonal demand for electricity is addressed by determining the size of an upper reservoir of a pumped storage facility that would ensure reliable delivery of electricity throughout the year. Scoping of the project to identify courses of action that would reduce the size and the investment in a pumped storage plant are covered.
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