Black-Necked Swans and Active Risk Management

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Author(s): Tze Leung Lai (Stanford University, USA)and Bo Shen (Stanford University, USA)
Copyright: 2011
Pages: 11
Source title: Surveillance Technologies and Early Warning Systems: Data Mining Applications for Risk Detection
Source Author(s)/Editor(s): Ali Serhan Koyuncugil (Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Turkey, and Baskent University, Turkey)and Nermin Ozgulbas (Baskent University, Turkey)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-61692-865-0.ch004

Keywords: Information Science Reference / Information Security & Privacy / IT Security and Ethics / Security & Forensics

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Abstract

This chapter gives a review of recent developments in sequential surveillance and modeling of default probabilities of corporate and retail loans, and relates them to the development of early warning or quick detection systems for managing the risk associated with the so-called “black swans” or their close relatives, the black-necked swans.

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