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Soft Computing Modeling of Wild Fire Risk Indices: The Risk Profile of Peloponnesus Region in Greece
Abstract
It is essential to find ways that can reduce the risk of devastating forest fires which have multiple negative ecological and financial consequences. This preliminary research effort focuses on the implementation of an intelligent rule based fuzzy inference system evaluating wild fire risk in the forest departments of Greece. The system uses soft computing techniques and was built in the Matlab integrated environment. The whole research is related to the wild fires in Greece during the period 1983-1997 with data coming from the general forest management service. It classifies all Greek forest departments (by assigning three labels) according to their forest fire risk due to distinct parameters. The estimation of the risk indices was done by using fuzzy triangular membership functions and Einstein fuzzy conjunction T-Norms. Moreover the system produces the profile of the forest departments located in the geographic area of “Peloponnesus.” This is a region located in the southern part of the country and it has a vast number of annual forest fire breakouts. Meteorological, topographic, and historical (total burned area and intervention time) features were considered for the determination of the risk indices. The system has shown a good performance which can be improved further if more data is gathered and used. Its main advantage is that it offers an innovative and reliable model that can be employed in any part of the world as a basis for natural disasters’ risk estimation.
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