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US Financial Crisis Critique and the Statistical Predictability of a NYSE Portfolio
Abstract
This study’s purpose is to review investment practitioner accounts describing the causes and effects of the global financial crises, with a focus of the US financial crisis. A critical gap in the literature was found: the lack of an independent indicator that could do forecast a market upturn or downturn at least a week in advance to provide sufficient lead time for hedging a stock portfolio before a crash. A sample of 95 high performing companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was used as a multiyear case study. Publicly available market indexes such as Mood's, Standards and Poor's (S&P, and others, were tested as independent factors to explain the behavior of the case study stock portfolio performance. Correlation, regression (simple, multiple, stepwise, surface response) and ANOVA (with T-tests) were used to analyze 817 days of returns during the 2008-2011 period of the US financial crisis. A complex polynomial nonlinear equation was developed which could predict the behavior of the case study portfolio five days in advance.
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