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Wither Convergence?: Catching-up in an Era of Diminished Expectations
Abstract
For the first time since the industrial revolution, emerging economies are the main driver of global economic growth. For all its significance, this cannot be taken as an indicator of global convergence, since it resulted essentially from the successful catching-up processes of just a few Asian countries over the last few decades, whilst the productivity and income of the bulk of the developing economies have lagged persistently behind those of the advanced economies. The former continue to have the potential to grow faster than the latter, but realizing this potential on sustainable basis makes it necessary to meet a number of increasingly stringent conditions. Grounds for optimism are considerably less solid today than was the case in the recent past. This is highlighted by the large number of countries locked-up in the ‘middle-income trap”. This chapter offers a fresh view of this phenomenon, examines the nature of the conditions required for the potential for catching-up of middle-income economies to be realized, and attempts to arrive at a realistic outlook on this matter.
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