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Foreseeing Emerging Technologies: Towards a Scoresheet-Based Methodology

Foreseeing Emerging Technologies: Towards a Scoresheet-Based Methodology
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Author(s): V. P. Kochikar (Infosys Technologies, India) and Shiv Mahajan (Stanford University, USA)
Copyright: 2007
Pages: 3
Source title: Managing Worldwide Operations and Communications with Information Technology
Source Editor(s): Mehdi Khosrow-Pour, D.B.A. (Information Resources Management Association, USA)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-59904-929-8.ch297
ISBN13: 9781599049298
EISBN13: 9781466665378

Abstract

The task of predicting the successful emergence of a technology of importance to business presents formidable challenges. Given that the ability to foresee the potential of emerging technologies is a big prize indeed – industry and academia can boost ROI on R&D expenditure manifold, companies can predict much better which new products of theirs or their competitors’ will succeed – this problem has received remarkably little focus. This paper addresses the problem of overcoming our myopia in foreseeing technological innovation. It seeks to pave the way towards developing a methodology for foreseeing emerging technologies. We outline four patterns – transplant, adaptation, synthesis, and resurrection – which explain how technologies evolve. We illustrate the patterns using examples - well-known as well as lesser known ones. The paper then illustrates a methodology that uses these patterns to gauge the potential of emerging technologies.

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