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Foreseeing Emerging Technologies: Towards a Scoresheet-Based Methodology
Abstract
The task of predicting the successful emergence of a technology of importance to business presents formidable challenges. Given that the ability to foresee the potential of emerging technologies is a big prize indeed – industry and academia can boost ROI on R&D expenditure manifold, companies can predict much better which new products of theirs or their competitors’ will succeed – this problem has received remarkably little focus. This paper addresses the problem of overcoming our myopia in foreseeing technological innovation. It seeks to pave the way towards developing a methodology for foreseeing emerging technologies. We outline four patterns – transplant, adaptation, synthesis, and resurrection – which explain how technologies evolve. We illustrate the patterns using examples - well-known as well as lesser known ones. The paper then illustrates a methodology that uses these patterns to gauge the potential of emerging technologies.
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