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Climate Change, Fuel Efficiency and Tax Revenues: A Case Study of Brazil and the USA
Abstract
The objective of this chapter is to identify the possible tax revenue losses due to improved fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles in Brazil and the United States (US). To do this, the authors project the evolution of fuel consumption in the light vehicle segment over a horizon to 2035 through the creation of a baseline and an alternative scenario, the latter including increased efficiency of light vehicles. This projection shows that the tax revenue loss due to an increase in light vehicle energy efficiency in Brazil and in the US can reach R$ 8.8 billion and US$ 5.4 billion in 2035, respectively. The isolated analysis of this tax revenue loss in the U.S. indicates that it could be compensated by a slight increase of the gasoline tax. In the Brazilian case, it would be necessary to increase federal taxes by R$ 0.13 per liter to avoid a decline in tax revenue.
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