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Does Financial Liberalization and Trade Openness Promote Growth in South Asia?
Abstract
This chapter examines the hypotheses that trade liberalization and financial liberalization jointly enhances economic growth in the four South Asian countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka for the period 1970-2007 using bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results suggest that in the long-run except for Bangladesh, financial development plays no role in promoting economic growth in these countries. Furthermore, the results suggest that trade openness plays a significant role in promoting economic growth in Bangladesh and India, while exerts negative effect on Pakistan and no effect on Sri Lanka. The share of domestic investment influences real output significantly in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. In the long- as well as short-run two-way causality between real output, trade openness, share of investment and inflation rate exists for the case of Bangladesh and India. For the case of India two-way causality between finance and growth exists in the short-run. For the case of Pakistan, there is an evidence of long-run causality between real output, finance, trade openness, share of investment and inflation rate. However, in the short-run, two-way causality between real output, trade openness and share of investment is existed and one-way causality between inflation rate, trade openness and share of investment is also observed. No evidence of short-run causality between finance and growth and vice versa for Pakistan has been seen. Finally, for Sri Lanka, an evidence of long-run causality between real output, finance, trade openness and investment share has been found. In the short-run one-way causality between finance-growth, trade-finance, trade-growth and trade-investment has been obtained. These mixed results suggest that the authorities may focuses more and more on the trade liberalization. In addition, there is a need to further deepen the banking and stock markets and provide investment friendly environment to enhance domestic investment which, in turn, promotes economic growth.
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